Tag / West Africa

by Mike Poverello

Dumping Ships From East-West to North-South Trade Lanes Nearing ‘Saturation’

Trade Lanes (The Jouranal of Commerce)

Trade Lanes (The Jouranal of Commerce)

Ocean carriers’ tactic of shifting surplus capacity from east-west trades to north-south routes is nearing “saturation point,” according to Drewry Maritime Research.

The “endless” cascading of tonnage from the main haul trades to regional routes is now “seriously haemorrhaging” freight rates in north-south services, and the rate of decline in the second quarter suggests carriers are running out of options to soak up surplus capacity, the London-based consulting firm said.

All-in prices from Asia to Australia, West Africa, South Africa, India and both the east and west coasts of South America based on forwarder buy rates for spot cargo declined significantly during the second quarter. Rates from Asia to India and the west coast of South America rose in July, but Drewry said it “remains to be seen if the increases are sustainable, as there have been many false dawns in other trade lanes.”

The average all-in spot rate from Shanghai to Santos, Brazil, in July was down 51 percent from January, and was 19 percent and 32 percent lower on services to Durban, South Africa, and Melbourne, Australia, respectively.

“This adversarial situation helps to explain why ocean carriers appear to have returned to war with each other over market shares between Asia and Europe since August,” Drewry noted.

The “apparent” benefit of cascading is that average vessel utilization from Asia to the west coast of North America and Europe has usually remained above 85 percent since the second quarter, thus helping to support freight rates.

“It’s been a yo-yo ride nevertheless, but freight rates are still a lot higher than they were at the beginning of the year,” Drewry explained.

Fourteen new vessels averaging 12,713 20-foot-equivalent units were delivered into existing Asia-to-North Europe schedules in the second quarter, but the overall average capacity of all ships on the route increased by just 1.7 percent from the beginning of the year to 10,456 TEUs, as carriers cascaded surplus vessels to other routes.

Drewry said further restructuring on north-south routes via alliances and consortia appears inevitable, particularly as world fleet growth of just over 7 percent in 2014 is again expected to significantly exceed cargo growth. Source: The Journal of Commerce

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by Mike Poverello

The African transhipment race

Have you noticed the debate in the on-line Global Ports Forum about who will become the main container terminals in East and West Africa? Portstrategy.com has taken it upon themselves to score some of the suggestions.

Nigeria is strongly identified as a hub for the west coast of Africa – we score that 7 out of 10. It has the potential but will new port development be delivered in time? Will the off-take infrastructure development be implemented in concert with port development at places like Lekki? Will Lekki’s hub function be undermined by other deepwater facilities being delivered first on the African coast?

Generally, they agree with the view expressed by one wise head in the Forum that the race for hub status on the West African coast is now a fierce one. However, we don’t agree with the contention that Angola will have a serious say in becoming a major hub for West Africa. It will struggle for some time yet to meet its own port capacity needs let alone fulfil a regional function. We score this suggestion 2 out of 10; go to the bottom of the class!

South Africa as a hub for East and West Africa? Well to a limited extent it does already fulfil this role but when South Africa booms its priority has to be gateway cargo and it is limited in terms of its economic and geographical reach. It is also not ideal because of position; we won’t score the suggestion down but conversely we also won’t score it up because it is a fair point. We do, however, see as a negative the continuing emphasis on the public operation of this country’s ports – it spells very high cost comparatively speaking and coupled with this, ironically, not the best service.

Doraleh Container Terminal, Djibouti? Yes we would agree that this has a role to play in container transhipment for East Africa and particularly with its phase two expansion now underway. The price is right for transhipment here but the cost of cargo movement to the main transit destination of Ethiopia is coming in for increasing criticism. It also has a limited reach along the East Coast. Another score of 7.

Mombasa? Yes huge potential for the East Coast of Africa but as history shows no political will to deliver new port capacity in line with demand. Nine in theory but five in practice.

The new port of Lamu? Designed to act as an export gateway for South Sudan, construction has begun on the $23bn (£14.5bn) port project and oil refinery in south-east Kenya’s coastal Lamu region near war-torn Somalia’s border. With a planned multi-purpose port function, because it is a ‘clean slate’ it could take on the hub function. Another 7.

So what is Port Strategy’s view?

In West Africa, we note that new purpose-built, deep draft container port capacity has either recently been installed or is about to be installed in West Africa in six or seven locations. In Lome in Togo and Pointe Noire in the Congo, for example, new facilities are set to come on-stream by end 2014 at the latest which will be able to handle vessels of up to 7,000 teu. We therefore suggest that there will be a split of hubbing activity between all these locations but with the first two or three terminals on-line grabbing the main part of transhipment activity. We also see a continuing role in the short-term at least for hubs such as Algeciras that ‘face’ Africa.

In East Africa we cannot escape the logic of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam but will they pick up the pace quick enough to seize the opportunity? Sadly, not so far. Lamu, therefore, may have a big role to play. Source: Portstrategy.com

by Mike Poverello

Moving goods efficiently to inland cities – a case for inland container depots

Port of Agapa, NigeriaNearly one in three African countries is landlocked, accounting for 26% of the continent’s landmass, and 25% of the population, or more than 200 million people, indicating that current population growth trends, including the development of population megacities distant from coastal locations will become powerful drivers of inland markets.

At the 3rd Annual Africa Ports, Logistics & Supply Chain Conference, APM Terminals’ Director of Business Development and Infrastructure Investments for the Africa-Middle East Region, Reik Mueller stated that “Ports will compete to become preferred gateways to move goods efficiently to inland cities and landlocked countries” Mr. Meuller added that “The future prosperity of these nations depends on access to the global economy and new markets; high-growth markets need inland infrastructure and logistics capabilities along development corridors. The ports that can provide the best and most efficient connectivity to those Inland markets will be the winners”.

Citing the recent success in reducing port congestion through Inland Container Depots (ICDs) now in operation outside of the APM Terminals operated port of Luanda, Angola, the Meridian Port Services joint venture in Tema, Ghana, and the ICD which was opened four km from APM Terminals Apapa, the busiest container terminal in Nigeria and all of West Africa, Mr. Mueller made the case for integrated transportation solutions, “Importers are not going to wait for improved infrastructure; the cargo will simply move to other ports” said Mr. Mueller.

Mueller described a new model for transportation planning and development in West Africa in which port and terminal operations shift focus from “container lifts” toward “integrated container transport solutions. Dry ports and inland markets are the untapped, overlooked opportunity markets of the future in Africa”. Now ain’t this a contrast to views on the southern tip of the continent – the continent’s biggest port without efficient inland corridors and networks must jeopardize investor confidence not to mention export profitability.   Sources: DredgingToday.com, PortStrategy.com and Greenport.com.