Tag / Gross domestic product

by Mike Poverello

India’s Trade Challenges Unique Among the BRICs

In 2013, the prospects for trade for the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will diverge. While the BRIC economies have been at the forefront of emerging market growth for the past decade, weaker export demand from the developed world since 2012 is impacting the trade balances of each BRIC country, reports Euromonitor International.

The widening trade deficit for India in particular, the only BRIC member in which imports outstrip exports, is threatening the country’s growth prospects for the year. India’s trade deficit widened in 2012 to 10.3% of GDP, as high oil prices further increased the cost of the country’s imports, while export growth slowed, leading the imbalance to worsen. This is compared to 2.9% surplus in China, 9.9% surplus in Russia and a 0.9% surplus in Brazil in 2012.  Both Russia and Brazil’s exports are buoyed significantly by primary resources, such as oil and gas. Euromonitor International expects India’s trade deficit to widen to 12.3% in 2013.

GREENEARTH INDIA 3India’s situation is unique. The country has not posted an annual trade surplus since at least 1977, primarily due to two key factors. First of all the country is highly dependent on imports of energy to maintain the country’s energy consumption. For example, the country imports 75.2% of the crude oil that it consumes, as a result, in 2012, imports of mineral fuels accounted for 33.9% of the country’s import bill. The rising costs of fossil fuels after 2010, as well as the low levels of energy efficiency have exacerbated India’s trade deficit issues;

Secondly, the economy’s external sector remains comparatively small in comparison with the other BRIC economies. The Indian economy has maintained growth through rising domestic spending and a burgeoning services sector, which in 2012 made up 53.4% of the economy. As a result, India’s exports made up just 15.7% of the country’s GDP in 2012, compared to 25.3% in China and 27.2% in Russia, Brazil is the exception with exports making up just 10.8% of GDP in the year;

However, over the majority of the period studied, the trade deficit has been offset by capital accumulation in India from FDI inflows into the country. Since 2006, a rapid acceleration in imports has led to a much larger trade deficit, while the financial crisis of 2007-2008 has meant FDI flows have tightened across the world. The trade deficit is therefore, a growing burden for India, as capital is diverted from India’s economy to fund rising import costs.

Although there are challenges for India’s external sector in 2013, the economy has seen very high trade growth, the fastest of the BRIC economies. Between 2007 and 2012, exports increased by 103.6% in US$ terms, while imports increased by 123.2%. Growth will continue in 2013, with 15.2% increase in exports and a 22.2% increase in imports. The rapid growth is a result of a burgeoning middle class and the development of export industries in the country. The long term prospects for India remain bright as a result, as the growing population and continued economic development offer considerable opportunities for investment. However, the trade deficit will continue to drag on economic growth until investor confidence in India returns. Source: Euromonitor International

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by Mike Poverello

World’s Best (and Worst) Economies

Global Competitiveness Report 2012-13According to the WEF, competitiveness reflects the level of productivity of a country, based on its institutions, policies and economic factors. In its study, the WEF groups the 144 countries it surveys into one of three economic categories. “Factor-driven” economies are the least developed and rely on low-skilled labor and natural resources. More developed countries are considered “efficiency-driven” economies because they turn to improving output. The most developed economies, which focus on improving technology and new product and idea development, are considered “innovative.”

To create the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) score for each country, the WEF ranked more than 100 economic indicators divided into 12 broad categories, referred to as pillars, that quantify the extent to which a country is competitive. The economic indicators and pillars were then scored 1 to 7. To rank the countries, some economic measures were weighted more heavily than others, depending on how the economy was categorized.

Based on WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report, which ranks 144 countries that make up almost 99% of the world’s GDP, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the economies with the highest and lowest Global Competitiveness Index scores. Data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization were used to provide additional information on some economies.

For a summary of the results, read – The World’s Best (and Worst) Economies – 24/7 Wall St.

For the full report, a PDF download (<500 pages) is available from: World Economic Forum

For a view on the impact for South Africa, read – Global South Africans

by Mike Poverello

‘State of Logistics’ survey – SA’s progress revealed

The 8th Annual State of Logistics Survey, a joint project by Imperial Logistics, the University and Stellenbosch and the CSIR reveals good news for South Africa. Logistics costs – as a percentage of GDP – have dropped to the lowest level ever at 12.7%. The in-depth report, which is available online at http://www.csir.co.za/sol/, provides some fascinating insights from some of the industry’s logistics thought leaders.

Transport costs are singled out as the most significant factor impacting the country’s logistics costs, comprising 53.2% of the logistics bill. “The marked impact of the 11% fuel price increase between 2009 and 2010 is no surprise considering the fuel price is the primary transport cost driver,” says Zane Simpson of the University of Stellenbosch. “Had the fuel price remained as it was in 2009, total transport costs in 2010 would have been R5.8billion less, consequently putting logistics costs as a percentage of GDP at an even more favourable 12.5%.” Transport costs as a percentage of total logistics costs would then have been 52% instead of 53%.

Globally, transport costs as a percentage of logistics costs are less than 40% which makes South Africa’s percentage relatively high. “For logistics to become a competitive weapon for South Africa, change is required,” said Cobus Rossouw, chief integration officer of Imperial Logistics. “South Africa is a leader in complex, dynamic logistics and has achieved success despite geographical impediments, severe skills shortages and lack of economies of scale “South Africans need to recognise that we are and can be counted among the best in logistics. And while we will always have much to learn from others, we need to recognise that we also have a lot to offer.” Source: CargoInfo.co.za