SA – New Bills discouraging trade and investment

containeryardSouth Africa is moving away from a policy promoting trade and investment to one that contradicts this, a roundtable on SA-European Union (EU) trade relations heard on Tuesday.

This comes as global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows jumped 36% last year to their highest level since the global economic and financial crisis began in late 2008, but plummeted in emerging markets, especially SA.

The most recent United Nations (UN) Conference on Trade and Development global investment trends monitor shows FDI into SA fell 74% to $1.5bn last year, while FDI inflows to Africa fell 31% to about $38bn.

Central Africa and Southern Africa saw the largest declines in FDI. The end of the commodity “supercycle” and the plunge in oil prices affected new project developments drastically, the UN body said. This had also affected Brazil, Russia and China, but not India, whose economy had surged ahead of late.

Peter Draper, MD of Tutwa Consulting, which researches policy and regulatory matters in emerging markets, said the promulgation of legislation such as the private security bill and the expropriation bill, created an impression that SA was not an attractive investment destination.

“What lies behind all of that, I think, is an ideological agenda, which is not favourable to business,” he said. “Geopolitically there is no love between SA and the US and SA and the EU. (But) There is lots of love for the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, SA).”

South African and international business have raised the alarm over the quiet signing into law of SA’s Promotion and Protection of Investment Bill late last year, after the government had acknowledged that it would do little to promote trade.

Meanwhile, the Department of Trade and Industry said last week that the African National Congress had directed its economic transformation subcommittee to review the trade agreements signed by SA since 1999.

It said SA’s goal in “negotiating” trade agreements was to support national development objectives, promote intra-African trade and the integration of SA into global markets. This is likely to be highly controversial after the government from 2013 unilaterally cancelled about 13 bilateral investment treaties with major EU countries, drawing warnings from the bloc that this could damage trade relations.

Investors fear the Protection of Investment Bill has diluted recourse to international arbitration over trade disputes, and enhances the possibility of expropriation. Critics also say it contradicts SA’s obligations under the Southern African Development Community’s finance and investment protocol, by undermining equitable treatment between foreign and domestic investors.

John Purchase, CE of agribusiness association Agbiz, which with Tutwa Consulting organised yesterday’s roundtable, said the bill had not answered “all those questions around the bilateral investment treaties”. Source: Business Day

Bumper year for Kenya-destined FDI

Kenya_flag_mapfDi Markets that even without the data for December, it is already clear that Kenya enjoyed a major increase in inward investment in 2015 when compared with 2014.

Greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets has tracked a bumper year for Kenya-destined FDI. Excluding retail, the monitor has recorded 78 projects between January and November 2015, a 36.84% increase compared with the whole of 2014. FDI entering Kenya during the 11 months of 2015 (for which data is available) has already surpassed that recorded for 2013, the previous multi-year high. fDi Markets is set to record 2015 as witnessing the highest number of inward FDI projects for Kenya since the it commenced tracking data in 2003.

fDi Markets has tracked the upward trend as beginning in 2007, with FDI levels increasing year on year between then and 2011. In the period between 2011 and 2014 a period of consolidation occurred in which inward investment fluctuated, with decreases recorded in 2012 and 2014. Between 2007 and 2015, fDi Markets has tracked a 766.66% increase in project numbers and a total capital investment of $14.04bn.

Kenya’s FDI resurgence in 2015 is further illustrated when compared with the rest of Africa. During 2015, Kenya attracted 12.58% of all FDI entering Africa, with only South Africa, a long-time powerhouse, attracting more, with 17.1%. This is further compounded by Nairobi attracting the most FDI on the continent at city level in 2015, beating Johannesburg, which has held this accolade since 2010.

With December’s data still to be recorded, Kenya is set to surpass previous years as a favoured destination for investment in Africa. With the implementation of proactive FDI legislation scheduled to be ratified during 2016 by Kenya’s government, further consolidation in 2016 is unlikely. Source: fDiMarkets

Mozambique – conditions ideal for ‘Chinese model’ of Special Economic Zones

Maputo1Mozambique has the necessary conditions to successfully adopt the Chinese model of Special Economic Zones, which helped to boost the Chinese economy, according to researchers Fernanda Ilhéu and Hao Zhang.

In the study “The Role of Special Economic Zones in Developing African Countries and Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (refer to link below),” researchers from the Lisbon School of Economics and Management noted that over 35 years, the Special Economic Zones have had “a decisive role in the development of places like Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Xiamen, Shantou, Hainan and Shanghai, and that African countries can leverage this experience.

In 2006, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation gave “significant priority” to creating up to 50 SEZs abroad, which are being implemented, with US$700 million invested by Chinese companies in 16 EEZ, according to information from China’s Trade Ministry.

Increasingly focused on business abroad, China needs raw materials and African markets to which to export its products, but can also benefit from shifting some of its industries to Africa, as the cost of Chinese labour increases.

The approach to Africa has involved through loans and financing for the construction of infrastructure, and “the development of African countries requires China’s increasing involvement,” including “collaborating in the development of SEZs,” the authors argue.

Regarding Portuguese-speaking countries, the average annual growth of trade between 2002 and 2012 totals 37 percent, turning China into the largest trading partner and largest export market for those countries.

The relationship has proved to be “dynamic in both directions,” they added, with hundreds of companies from Portuguese-speaking countries operating in China and Chinese investment in those countries of around US$30 billion, according to China’s Trade Ministry.

As for the SEZ, the two researchers focused their attention on the Mozambican Manga-Mungassa (Beira, Sofala province) SEZ, established in May 2012, under the management of China’s Dingsheng International Investment Company (Sogecoa Group), which has plans to invest close to US$500 million.

Nearing completion, the first phase includes the construction of warehouse units, followed by the “operational” phase, with construction of additional infrastructure such as hotels and housing, and finally the free industrial zone, where high tech units will be installed.

“In terms of knowledge transfer, Mozambique has made active steps in learning from the experience of Chinese SEZs and using this model to attract foreign investment,” they said.

In 2012 the Mozambican government created the Office for Economic Areas with Accelerated Development (Gazeda) that in addition to Manga-Mungassa, is responsible for the projects of the Belulane Industrial Park, the Locone and Minheuene Free Industrial Zones and the Crusse and Jamali integrated park.

On 6 May, 2014 the Mozambican government approved the establishment of the Mocuba SEZ, a sign of the “determination to create more conditions and to look for more opportunities and economic measures to create jobs and generate wealth,” in the country, the study said.

According to the authors, Mozambique has a strategic location, the ability to attract investment through the diaspora, as well as its model of economic growth and development in its favour, although there remain difficulties in infrastructure and technological development.

“The Chinese SEZ model can be successfully applied to the Manga-Mungassa area,” they concluded. Source: macauhub / MZ

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FDI – Where is China Investing?

China-Overseas-FDIFollowing the financial crisis that hit Asia in the late 1990s, the Chinese government introduced its ‘Going Out’ or ‘Going Global’ strategy. The country had been open to inward FDI for a number of years at this stage, and the time had come to promote Chinese companies globally.

While Africa considers itself as a significant destination for China FDI, the numbers indicate that Chinese projects and investment is significantly smaller than it’s investments in other parts of the western world. To see exactly where the money is going, visit this link – Where is China Investing?

The government aimed to increase investment, promote its Chinese brand of companies and improve the country’s free market. The policy became one of the government’s ‘four modernisations’ and encompassed a range of schemes to assist outward FDI, such as using currency reserves to support foreign investment, offering tax rebates to investors and encouraging Chinese embassies globally to offer more and better financial assistance.

The result has been a boom in Chinese outward FDI. Between January 2009 and December 2013, greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets recorded a total of $161.03bn in Chinese outward FDI, creating almost 300,000 jobs across the world. During this period, in terms of investment projects, China was the ninth largest source country for FDI, peaking in 2011 with 429 projects. In terms of both capital expenditure and job creation, China was ranked seventh globally. Source: FDI Magazine