According to the recently released HSBC Trade Forecast Report, by 2020 India is expected to surge past the United States as the world’s biggest importer of infrastructure goods – a position it is expected to hold until at least 2030. This is a result of the country’s increased demand for materials for infrastructure projects (i.e., metals, minerals, buildings and transport equipment) as it invests more in the building of its civil infrastructure.
The report, which focuses primarily on infrastructure, notes that as Asian economies grow they will take an increasing share of infrastructure-related imports over the next two decades. Currently, the U.S. tops the list of countries importing infrastructure goods, followed by India, Hong Kong, China and Germany. By 2030, India will sit up the top of this list, followed by the U.S., China, Hong Kong and Korea.
Sandeep Uppal, HSBC India Managing Director and Head of Commercial Banking, noted that the “rising middle classes across Asia’s rapidly emerging markets, especially in India and China, will drive significant infrastructure demand in the region.”
“Aspirations of the new middle class and rapid urbanization will force India to upgrade its civil infrastructure, thus pushing up demand for overseas infrastructure related goods,” she added.
To continue with the rising trends, the report further states that Asia as a whole is predicted to see the most rapid growth in merchandise trade between 2020-2030 – led by India, China and Vietnam – at estimated annual export growth rates of more than 10 percent.
For comparison, the export rates of European countries, such as the UK, France and Germany, are forecasted to grow at about 4-5 percent annually on average over this 10-year period. Meanwhile, average export growth in the U.S. is estimated to top off at around 6 percent annually during the same period.
What this means is that by 2030 infrastructure-related goods will be the most commonly traded type of goods, increasing in market share from the current rate of 45 percent of total goods exported to upwards of 54 percent. Source: India Briefing